SF Chron: M & R says Prop F out-performing Prop G in the polls

Lennar "gearing up for costly" negative ad campaign against Prop F

Well, the Chronicle still calls F a "poison pill," still frames it as solely Chris Daly's baby (which is Lennar's spin) and still spends more ink on Lennar spokespeople and Prop G proponents than anyone else. But the Bay Area's largest daily is letting folks know that the city's voters aren't buying it.

Measuring up: It was all smiles for the cameras a few days back as San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom and Sen. Dianne Feinstein held a rally in Bayview-Hunters Point in support of Proposition G, the June ballot measure backing a big development at Candlestick Point that could include a new home for the 49ers.

But with vote-by-mail balloting already getting under way this week, there is a growing fear behind the scenes that the measure is in danger of going down far short of the goal line.

A lack of unified support from the Board of Supervisors, the absence of a deal with organized labor over how much "workforce housing" should be included, and a rival "poison pill" initiative by Supervisor Chris Daly that would require half the homes built to be affordable housing, threaten to upend the mayor's big development before it even gets off the ground.

"You can always count on a certain number of folks to line up and do the wrong thing," said Prop. G and mayoral campaign adviser Eric Jaye. "It's really destructive ... but I don't think anyone is surprised."

Recent polls conducted by developer Lennar Corp.'s "Yes on G" campaign show that while the measure is ahead 50 percent to 30 percent, Daly's "companion" Proposition F is leading by an even wider margin - 58 percent to 31 percent. And even if Prop. G gets more votes, Prop. F needs only simple majority approval to take effect. (emphasis added)

If that happens, "it's all over - we absolutely can't do the project at 50 percent (affordable hous-ing)," said Kofi Bonner, head of Lennar's San Francisco office.

The mayor's City Hall point man on the project, Michael Cohen, calls Daly's initiative "reckless and dishonest" - arguing that it will kill development in the city's southeast corner for years.

Daly, whose initiative has the backing of the weekly Bay Guardian and the local chapter of the Sierra Club, said the Lennar plan - at least in its present form - deserves to die.

"This out-of-state developer should play by the rules and meet the needs of everyday San Franciscans," he said.

Not surprisingly, with millions of dollars already invested in the project, Lennar is gearing up for a costly campaign against Prop. F that highlights Daly - not exactly the town's most popular politician - as its biggest backer.

Meanwhile, Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin is also holding back his endorsement of the mayor's plan, and instead is turning up the heat on Lennar to bend more for the unions.

Put it all together, and what once looked like a sure thing for Lennar is shaping up more as a 50-50 bet at best.

Sorry Lennar, but "highlighting" Daly is not going to be enough to derail the Yes on F train. This is about values. The city's voters understand that affordable, workforce housing is issue # 1 for working and middle class families living (or trying to live) in San Francisco.

F is simply the only prop that guarantees affordable, workforce housing for families who want to live, work and raise their children in The City.